"The Mandalorian and Grogu" are predicted to have a catastrophic box office drop in their second weekend

The new full-length from Lucasfilm, "Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu," is showing signs of a sharp audience bleed. Forecasts point to a 65–70% fall in U.S. box office on weekend two, which would push the three-day take under $30M. A limp sophomore weekend after a modest opening — not a great look.

A near-mirror: last year's "Fantastic Four: First Steps" suffered a 69% tumble in its second weekend. That kind of collapse (i.e., a fast drop-off after opening) suggests initial hype didn't convert into staying power. Fans show up early; later arrivals do not — simple as that, vs. expectations.

Both pictures also carry a weird split in reaction. General viewers gave each an "A-" on CinemaScore, indicating solid fan satisfaction. Critics, however, were lukewarm about Jon Favreau’s sci-fi western tale of Din Djarin and Grogu — reviews that failed to pull in casual or fence-sitting moviegoers.

Meanwhile, indie horror is punching above its weight. Low-budget originals like "Possession" and "Backstage" are pulling young crowds back into theaters, changing the flow of ticket sales. Studios keep trying to repurpose streaming IP for theatrical runs while smaller films, with different vibes and lower price tags, are attracting attention — a messy, competitive landscape, and one that doesn't favor guaranteed tentpole success.