Humanoid robots are expected to see a surge in orders in China.

China Expects a Boom in Humanoid Robot Orders

Even Elon Musk acknowledges growing competition from China in robotics, believing that the main rival for his Optimus will be Chinese developments.

According to Morgan Stanley forecasts, sales of humanoid robots in China will grow by 133% this year, reaching 28,000 units. Increased production is leading to lower costs. This year, component prices are expected to fall by 16%, and by 2035, according to Bain & Co estimates, the cost of robots could decrease by almost 70%. If in 2024 the price started at $50,000, by mid-century it could be $21,000. In the US, over the same period, the price will drop from $200,000 to $75,000.

By 2036, about 25.4 million such robots will be operating worldwide — about 2% of the market. By 2040, their share could grow to 13%, and by 2044 — to 42%. Meanwhile, 80% of all robots commissioned this year will operate in China.

According to Bain estimates, in the coming years, robots will be used mainly in industry. Widespread household use will not occur before 2035. At the same time, specialized robots for narrow tasks will retain their niche, as they are more efficient and have a faster payback period.

Sales in China are growing: from 12,000 in 2023 to 28,000 in 2024, and could reach 2.6 million by 2035.

Musk emphasizes that Chinese companies are successful in both manufacturing and developing software for robots.