Analysts forecast a record deficit and a surge in prices for RAM until 2028

The market for RAM and flash looks like it’s about to tighten in a way that will bite ordinary users sooner than later. UBS — yes, that big investment bank — has cut its outlook sharply and now warns of an uncommon supply shock not seen in the last 30 yrs.

Some specifics: DDR contract prices are now forecast to jump 32% in Q3 (they had been penciled in for +17%), then climb another 18% in Q4. NAND-based storage isn’t safe either — SSDs and similar drives could cost roughly 30% more over the next three months.

What’s driving it? A couple of blunt forces. Huge cloud and tech players keep buying up capacity, and fabs are being refitted en masse to churn out HBM for AI accelerators instead of the regular DRAM used in PCs and smartphones. The result: ordinary RAM becomes scant. UBS’s math shows DRAM demand rising ~36% by 2027 while production is expected to tick up only ~19% — a ~17% gap. That gap, if it holds, points to prolonged tightness into mid‑2028 (and yes, that feels long if you need a new machine).

If you were planning a purchase or an upgrade, now might be the time to think twice about timing — or at least to expect sticker shock. I know it’s annoying; supply chains and corporate buying habits have a way of turning what should be routine upgrades into headaches.