Analysts at TrendForce have acknowledged a flaw in their price forecast for DDR5, DDR4, and NAND — it was overly optimistic.

TrendForce Analysts Acknowledge Flaw in Their DDR5, DDR4, and NAND Price Forecast — It Was Too Optimistic

Analytical company TrendForce has published a sharply revised forecast for DRAM and flash memory prices for the current quarter. Due to higher-than-expected demand in the server and consumer segments, as well as an overall shortage, the forecasts for price increases had to be significantly raised.

Key changes for DRAM (memory):

• PC memory (DDR4, DDR5): Instead of the expected 55–60%, a price increase of 90–95% is now forecast. This will be a quarterly record.
• Server memory (DRAM): Prices will rise by approximately 90%, also a historical high.
• Mobile memory (LPDDR4X, LPDDR5X): The increase will be about 90%, creating additional pressure on smartphone manufacturers.

For NAND (flash memory, SSD):

• Instead of the previously stated 33–38%, analysts now expect a price increase of 55–60%.
• Server SSDs: Will become more expensive by 53–58%, also a record indicator for the segment.

The reasons for the revision were PC shipments in the last quarter that significantly exceeded expectations, intensifying the shortage, as well as persistently high demand from cloud and server companies. Many manufacturers are also reallocating production capacity from NAND to the more profitable DRAM, further tightening the supply in the flash memory market.

It is separately noted that this may not be the last upward adjustment to the forecast, as the market situation remains very dynamic.